From the Desk of RHA Oregon Lobbyist Cindy Robert;

5/15/2019

Today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its eighth and final economic and revenue forecast of the 2017-2019 biennium, which is about to close.

Projected 2017-2019 combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $875.5 million (4.3%) from the March Forecast.The projected ending balance is up $869.7 million from the March forecast resulting in a projected $199.4 million transfer to the state’s Rainy Day Fund.

For the final quarter completing this fiscal biennium, personal income tax collections were up $241.8 million (13.1%) from the March forecast but personal income was down $0.6 billion (-0.3%) from the March forecast.  Personal income tax revenue is up $1.44 billion (8.4%) from the Close of Session Forecast (COS).  Corporate income tax collections were up $61.4 million (149.0%) from the March forecast and up $615.9 million (57.2%) from the 2015 COS estimate.  General Fund (GF) Gross revenue is up $2.02 billion (10.4%) from the 2017 COS estimate and Net GF and Lottery resources are up $2.388 billion (11.2%) from the 2015 COS estimate.

As a result, it is predicted that the personal kicker will kick for as much as $1.41 billion to be credited to taxpayers and the corporate kicker will kick for as much as $615.9 million to be dedicated to the K-12 education spending in the upcoming biennium.

The forecast for the next biennium’s budget includes new funding expected as the result of passage of HB 3427, the new corporate tax bill that is awaiting the Governor’s signature.  The next biennium’s projection for “Net Combined Resources” (GF & Lottery) is expected to be approximately $24.77 billion, or nearly $770 million more than that previous forecast.

Click here for Revenue Summary

Click her for Revenue Forecast